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World Cup 2018 - Groups

World cup will start in a few days.

FIFA has also launched the relevant fantasy game (https://fantasy.fifa.com).
Let's check initially the rules. They are the same rules as in the uefa champions league fantasy (http://uclfantasy.uefa.com/en/fantasy17/rules). As a result we are searching for goals or assists, ideally from defenders or midfielders, clean sheets and we'll choose our players trying to maximize the usage of manual substitutions (e.g. we should not select 2 goalkeepers that would play the same day, we'll try to pick a potential captain from each day and then every day we'll substitute those that haven't met our expectations). There are no bonus points (as in FPL).

One major difference compared to CHL is that national teams do not have the luxury of rotations or many alternatives. A winning lineup will not change. There is no reason to rotate a striker who is scoring. There is no reason to risk with different formations. As a result we'll wait for 1-2 matches and then we would be able to predict lineups and players in the right momentum.

Wildcard usage is always a valuable asset. The ideal scenario is to use it in the knock our phase, after the first knock out games, before quarter-finals. But most probably we'll use it in the group phase, either immediately in the second round, trying to fix our initial wrong selections, or in the third round, searching for teams that would rotate or would desperately need to win.

Let's start analyzing each group, trying to predict the teams that would qualify and the players that can lead us to the top of our fantasy leagues.


Group A – EgyptRussia, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

Prediction:

Uruguay and Egypt (without Salah) will qualify. However everything will be open up to the last minute for Russia. A close look at the group schedule reveals also that Egypt has the theoretically easier match against Saudi Arabia in the 3rd round. So most probably this group can only provide points from Uruguay's defenders (as Cavani and Suarez are a little bit overpriced, compared to other alternatives)

Key players:

Salah (8.5, Egypt): Our advice is to wait, he hasn't started in any match after his injury.
Abdallah El-Said (6.0,  Egypt): The main source of assists for his team. If you also believe that Egypt can qualify, with or without Salah, he can be a reasonable choice.
Trezeguet (6.0, Egypt): He can scope and provide assists. After an amazing season for Kasimbasa he can also shine in the World Cup.
Hegazy (4.5, Egypt): Egypt is a defensive team, Hegazy is a cheap option for clean sheet points.

Golovin (6.5, Russia): A reliable source of goals and assists.
Smolov (8.0, Russia): His goals can help Russia to qualify.

Muslera (5.5), Godin (5.5) (Uruguay): The obvious choices for clean sheet points


Group B – Iran, Morocco, Portugal, Spain

Prediction:

Spain and Portugal will qualify. Morocco is also a team that can surprise us. They could easily qualify from other groups. The tricky part is also that Spain VS Portugal is scheduled for the first round, so whoever loses will be at risk.
The obvious choice is to pick defenders from Santos' team and scorers from Spain.

Key players:

Iago Aspas (8.0, Spain): A choice that will allow you to differentiate, hoping for many goals scored by Spain.
Isco (8.5), Asensio (6.0) (Spain): Just pick an attacking midfielder who will also score. Asensio can be a VFM choice.

CR7 (12.0, Portugal): An overpriced but safe choice.
Guerreiro (5.5, Portugal): He can earn points through clean sheets, assists, goals (if CR7 would let him take the set pieces)

Hakimi (4.5, Morocco): A cheap defender, if you are looking for a budget option and believe that Morocco can qualify.
Belhanda (5.5, Morocco) arrives at the tournament in fine form. The central midfielder has found the net in each of their two friendlies against Slovakia and Estonia over the last weeks.


Group C – Australia, Peru, France, Denmark

Prediction:

France can easily qualify, we'll pick as many players as possible from them. Peru and Denmark can also provide budget options.

Key players:

Eriksen (9.0, Denmark): Although he is not a cheap option, he can reliably provide points in even all the matches.

Carrillo (5.5, Peru): A very cheap option if you are looking for a 3rd striker.
Cueva (6.0, Peru): has both set-piece and penalty duties in his favour.
Yotun (5.5, Peru): The central midfielder was their top player for assists (four) on the way to Russia.
Advincula (4.5, Peru): The cheaper starter among Peru's defender
Guerrero (7.5, Peru): A world class scorer, with huge experience, hoping to help his national team to qualify.

Griezmann (10.0, France): Priced lower than CR7 and Messi, although playing for an attacking team participating in a comparatively easier group. Our team will definitively start from him.
Pavard (4.5, France): We'll wait until last minute to confirm if he'll be in the starting lineup or not.
Mendy (5.5), Lloris (6.0) (France): Safe options for clean sheet points


Group D – Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria

Prediction:

Argentina and Croatia will qualify. Nigeria's team looks full of talent but they are lacking experience.

Key players:

Messi (12.0, Argentina): Argentina = Messi
Lo Celso (6.0, Argentina): The box-to-box midfielder has started in all the recent matches, delivering also 3 assists.
Higuain (9.0, Argentina): A reasonaly priced striker, a long run investment. 

Idowu (4.0), Uzoho (4.0) (Nigeria): In case you are looking for cheap options that would play and you believe that Nigeria can qualify...


Group E – Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia

Prediction:

Brazil and Switzerland will qualify. We'll get as many players (3) as we can from Brazil.

Key players:

Marcelo (6.5, Brazil): Clean sheets, assists, goals, 45% of fantasy users already selected him...
Jesus (9.0, Brazil): Very reasonably priced striker, playing for a goal generating machine.
Casemiro (5.5, Brazil): He will start from sure and can also score if needed
Neymar (12.0, Brazil): He's back, an obvious choice

Ljajic (6.5, Serbia): Attacking midfield, staring in Serie A, with exceptional ability to score.

Akanji (4.5, Switzerland): The best defender of the team, at the lowest price!


Group F – Mexico, Germany, Sweden, South Korea

Prediction:

Germany will easily qualify. Mexico can follow them in the round of 16.

Key players:

Kimmich (6.5, Germany): A defender involved in more goals than any other player during the qualification phase (assists + goals)
Muller (9.5, Germany): Although he was not very productive during the last season, counting him as a midfielder is actually a gift.

Yong (4.5, Korea): While he is playing as midfielder, he is considered by the game as a cheap defender.

Granqvist (5.0, Sweden): He is their designated penalty taker and scored three of them on the way to Russia.

Layun (5.5 , Mexico) : No Mexico player recorded more assists than Layun during qualification (three), two of which came from Layun’s pinpoint corner-kick deliveries.


Group G – Belgium, Panama, England, Tunisia

Prediction:

Belgium will easily qualify. England can surprise us this time and qualify (as Tunisia and Panama look very weak).

Key players:

Meunier (6.0, Belgium): Although considered as defender, he plays in as midfielder for Belgium, delivering assists for his talented co-players.
Carrasco (6.5, Belgium): An attacking player, he can score and also provide assists, a VFM in that price.
Lukaku (10.0, Belgium): His only theoretically difficult match is against well-known defenders that are struggling to stop him in Premier League (with very poor results)

Kane (11.0, England) is England’s most likely source of goals this summer, after a 30-goal season with Tottenham Hotspur.
Sterling (9.0, England): A striker if you want to differentiate
Walker (6.0, England): A safe pick for assists and clean sheet points


Group H - Japan, Senegal, Colombia, Poland

Prediction:

Colombia and Poland are the safest options. Senegal can surprise us.

Key players:

Sane (4.5, Senegal): That is Sane. With an S. he can even score or provide assists, a risky but interesting option
Sabaly (4.0, Senegal): a cheap defender to have in mind

Uribe (5.5, Colombia): More than 10 goals in his last season, playing against 3 teams with weak defenses, he is definitevely an option.

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